3rd Annual Oscar Pre-game Extravaganza

The past year was a surprisingly good one for film, but it's hard to tell looking at this year's slate of Oscar nominations. 2008 was a year of great Summer blockbusters and mediocre prestige pics, and, as expected, the Academy made the mistake of choosing the latter over the former. Here are my unfortunate predictions. . .

Best Picture

Cynical Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Idealistic Prediction: Wall*E or Dark Knight

It's no surprise that Slumdog is the heavy favorite in this category, but I can't for the life of me figure out how it's schmaltzy feel-good heroics puts it above the fray of any summer popcorn flick that were shut out in this category. I also can't figure out who cared enough about The Reader and Benjamin Button (other than the producers of said films) enough to get them nominations, while passing up the chance to give nominations (and maybe a win) to two films that were great cinematic achievements in their own right, and universally loved by both critics and the public. Good job Academy. Way to vote your way to irrelevance.

Best Director

Cynical Prediction: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Idealistic Prediction: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire

Though Slumdog is hardly my favorite Danny Boyle movie, I do love his films and will be quite happy to see him win.

Best Actor

Cynical Prediction: Sean Penn for Milk
Idealistic Prediction: Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler

It's hard to tell how much of Mickey Rourke's performance can really be qualified as "acting", but I don't know how you can't love him for it. I do think Frank Langella deserves an honorable mention here though and am a little pissed that he's not being giving serious consideration here for playing the most adorable Richard Nixon of all time.

Best Actress

Cynical Prediction: Kate Winslet The Reader
Idealistic Prediction: Kate Winslet The Reader

There's maybe a slight chance that Meryl Streep could win this award, and it wouldn't be undeserved, but I'm pretty sure Kate Winslet is going to have a nervous breakdown if she doesn't get it this time around. I'm also in favor of anything that cynically proves Ricky Gervais right.

Best Supporting Actor

Cynical Prediction: Heath Ledger for Dark Knight
Idealistic Prediction: Heath Ledger for Dark Knight

Probably Heath Ledger is going to win this just out of respect and guilt on the part of the voters, but I don't think you can make much of an argument for anyone else in this category anyway. I'm just hoping that after Javier Bardem's win last year, that this will start the tradition of this award going exclusively to psychotic serial murderer characters.

Best Supporting Actress

Cynical Prediction: Penelope Cruz for Vicky Christina Barcelona
Idealistic Prediction: Viola Davis for Doubt

As much as I secretly wish Marissa Tomei would win this award for playing a spot-on Jersey Girl stripper, she's already won an Oscar for doing pretty much the same thing. Also, for Viola Davis's ten minutes of screen-time in Doubt she pretty much shows up and completely owns Meryl Streep. If that doesn't deserve an Oscar, I don't know what does.

Best Original Screenplay

Cynical Prediction: Milk
Idealistic Prediction: Wall*E or Frozen River

This was actually sort of a tough one for me, and I still can't decide. I mean, unquestionably I think Pixar deserves some credit for having, above all else, some of the best written films of all time. But Frozen River was probably one of the most intense thrillers I've seen in a long time. Also, since this is the only award where the Academy sees fit to recognize Sundance-type independent films, it would be nice to see a film with genuine indie cred win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Cynical Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Idealistic Prediction: Frost/Nixon

There was a lot that was great about Slumdog Millionaire, but I don't think the screenplay's modern rehash of a Dickensian romance novel really deserves an award. Compare that to the political-docudrama-as-underdog-sports-movie scipt of Frost/Nixon. No contest.

Best Cinematography

Cynical Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Idealistic Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire

The photography in Danny Boyle movies is always amazing. This is no exception. Though I think it would have shown some balls on the part of the Academy to nominate Wall*E for this category.

Best Editing

Cynical Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Idealistic Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire

This movie is pretty much an editor's wet dream. I can't imagine it not winning.

Best Art Direction

Cynical Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt
Idealistic Prediction: The Dark Knight

Probably if David Fincher gave two shits about the screenplay instead of spending all his time on the VFX and art direction, this might have been a decent film. So I'm sure that if this film gets any awards, it'll be here.

Best Costume Design

Cynical Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt
Idealistic Prediction: Milk

As usual, this award comes down to which period drama has the gayest, most ornate outfits. Ironically I thought Milk was by far least gay and most tastefully understated film in this category. Plus I sort of wish I actually owned some of James Franco's outfits from this movie.

Best Original Score

Cynical Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Idealistic Prediction: Milk

As much as I enjoy the Bollywood musical stylings of A.R. Rahman, I just want Danny Elfman to win an award, and this is probably his best shot.

Best Song

Cynical Prediction: songs from Slumdog Millionaire
Idealistic Prediction: "Down to Earth" from Wall*E

Really Springsteen's song from The Wrestler should be the clear winner in this category, but the Academy seemed to think it better to only have three nominations than to even nominate it. So with that said, I'd just like Wall*E to win in one of the categories that it actually wasn't snubbed.

Best Makeup

Cynical Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt
Idealistic Prediction: Dark Knight

Is it just me or was the aging makeup in Benjamin Button not that convincing. Whereas both the Two-Face and Joker makeup in Dark Knight is both powerfully disturbing and 100 percent convincing.

Best Sound

Cynical Prediction: Dark Knight
Idealistic Prediction: Wall*E

The sound awards are always the biggest crapshoot, and seemingly completely arbitrary unless you're a sound designer. But since the first 45 minutes of Wall*E has pretty much no dialogue and I love it anyway, I'm sort of partial.

Best Sound Editing

Cynical Prediction: Dark Knight
Idealistic Prediction: Wall*E

See above.

Best Animated Film

Cynical Prediction: Wall*E
Idealistic Prediction: Wall*E

Though I was pleasantly surprised with Kung Fu Panda, it's still not much of a contest.

Best Foreign Language Film

Cynical Prediction: Waltz With Bashir
Idealistic Prediction: Waltz With Bashir

Not gonna lie. I still haven't seen any of these. But pretty much anybody I've met that's seen Waltz With Bashir has said it's pretty amazing.

Best Documentary

Cynical Prediction: Man On Wire
Idealistic Prediction: Man On Wire

I've only seen two of these, but they were both awesome. And as much as I enjoy Werner Herzog's ridiculous voiceover, Man On Wire is definitely the better film.