Last night Erin and I went to
Letters from Iwo Jima closing out our Oscar-movie watching marathon. It was reasonably well done, but mostly it was a generic, cliched war movie and the fact that its a sympathetic portrayal of Japanese soldiers directed by an old, white American is not enough
to make it a brilliant film. So having now watched the bulk of nominated movies I'm gonna throw out my amateur predictions for tomorrow night. I'm too lazy to post all of the nominees, but if you're interested, you can see them
here.
Best PictureIdealistic Prediction:
The DepartedCynical Prediction:
BabelLuckily,
The Departed is the frontrunner in this category, but since
Babel is pretty much the same film as
Crash but ten times better (which should not be construed as an endorsement of either film), I wouldn't be surprised if Alejandro González Iñárritu's international pity-fest walks away with this one.
Best DirectorIdealistic Prediction: Martin Scorsese for
The DepartedCynical Prediction: Clint Eastwood for
Letters from Iwo JimaThough I fear it would be somewhat anticlimactic for Martin Scorsese to actually win this award (I mean, does he really want to accept an award from an organization that previously decided that Kevin Costner was a better filmmaker than he was?), he did direct the best movie of the last year and I would hope that the Academy is tired of kissing Clint Eastwood's bony, wrinkled ass. . . but maybe not.
Best ActorIdealistic Prediction: Peter O'Toole for
VenusCynical Prediction: Forrest Whitaker for
The Last King of Scotland(Disclamer: I somehow managed to not see any of the nominated movies in this category, but I'm not gonna let that stop me). Forrest is definitely favored in this category and probably deserves the award, but it would be refreshing to see someone who has been shut out numorous times only to be given a token lifetime achievement award actually win the real thing. Plus, I'm still bitter about that time I had to watch
First Daughter on a plane.
Best ActressIdealistic Prediction: Helen Mirren for
The QueenCynical Prediction: Helen Mirren for
The QueenHelen Mirren will get this award, and she deserves it. Period.
Best Supporting ActorIdealistic Prediction: Alan Arkin for
Little Miss Sunshine or Mark Wahlberg for
The DepartedCynical Prediction: Eddie Murphy for
DreamgirlsAlright, I get it. Eddie Murphy is talented. He can sing and dance and act and channel James Brown all in the same movie. But since I was born in 1984, all I can think of when somebody mentions his name is fat suits and a bad dance song with Rick James in the video. And I get that Alan Arkin and Mark Wahlberg both played completely one-dimensional characters, but you can't deny that they both completely own every scene they're in in their respective films.
Best Supporting ActressIdealistic Prediction: Jennifer Hudson
Cynical Prediction: Jennifer Hudson
With one performance she singlehandedly proves that Beyoncee can't sing and that American Idol is a failure. No complaints here.
Best Original ScreenplayIdealistic Prediction:
Little Miss SunshineCynical Prediction:
BabelDid I mention that
Babel is crap. Because it is.
Little Miss Sunshine is a comedy that doesn't pander to frat guys or lonely, single women, and it's actually funny. When was the last time you could say that about a movie?
Best Adapted ScreenplayIdealistic Prediction: The Departed
Cynical Prediction: The Departed
Not that I wouldn't mind seeing
Children of Men or
Borat win this one, but
The Departed succeded in taking one of the most ridiculous premises I've ever heard, and not only made it seem plausible, but turned it into one of the most hardcore gangster movies of all time.
Best CinematographyIdealistic Prediction:
Children of MenCynical Prediction:
Children of MenAfter being robbed of nominations Best Picture and Director, it'll be good to see this movie get some love, even if it's in a category that nobody in America is gonna give a shit about.
Best EditingIdealistic Prediction:
The DepartedCynical Prediction:
BabelJust because a movie has four storylines and extended montage sequences in every other scene doesn't mean it's well edited, especially when it's at least 20 minutes too long.
Best Art DirectionIdealistic Prediction:
Pan's LabrynthCynical Prediction:
DreamgirlsFor the record, I think
Children of Men should have been nominated and won for this award, but since it didn't, it should go the next best film by a Mexican with an overactive imagination.
Best Costume DesignIdealistic Prediction:
Marie AntoinetteCynical Prediction:
DreamgirlsThere's pretty much no way that
Dreamgirls isn't gonna win this award, but I'd like to point out that
Marie Antoinette is the only costume period piece I've ever seen that actually makes light of the absudity of 19th century clothing.
Best Original ScoreIdealistic Prediction:
BabelCynical Prediction:
BabelAlright, I admit it. The music in
Babel was pretty good.
Best SongIdealistic Prediction: ??
Cynical Prediction: ??
Whatever. Prince wasn't nominated. And since all the good songs in
Dreamgirls were apparently lifted from the stage musical (and thereby not elligible) I'm not even gonna pretend like I care who wins this one.
Best MakeupIdealistic Prediction:
Pan's LabrynthCynical Prediction:
Pan's LabrynthIn case you're interested, there are only two other nominees for this award, and they are
Click and
Apocalypto. Since one is an Adam Sandler movie and the other is directed by the most vocal American anti-semite since Henry Ford,
Pan's Labrynth pretty much wins by default.
Best SoundIdealistic Prediction:
DreamgirlsCynical Prediction:
DreamgirlsIt was a two-and-a-half hour musical that I sat though and didn't hate. I guess it deserves
some credit.
Best Sound EditingIdealistic Prediction:
Letters from Iwo JimaCynical Prediction:
Flags of Our FathersDon't know. Don't care.
Best Animated FilmIdealistic Prediction:
CarsCynical Prediction:
CarsLet's not kid ourselves here. Pixar could make a movie about the zany adventures of an anthropomorphic turd and it would still be better than anything that any other studio is doing.
Best Foreign Language FilmIdealistic Prediction:
Pan's LabrynthCynical Prediction:
Pan's Labrynth
It's good. Everybody loves it. It's gonna win.
Best Documentary
Idealistic Prediction:
An Inconvenient TruthCynical Prediction:
An Inconvenient TruthOkay, I admit it. I didn't see any of the nominees for this one (even though I apparently own a copy of
An Inconvenient Truth), but c'mon, Al Gore has had such bad luck with elections. Let's throw him a bone here.