Pregaming the Oscars

Last night Erin and I went to Letters from Iwo Jima closing out our Oscar-movie watching marathon. It was reasonably well done, but mostly it was a generic, cliched war movie and the fact that its a sympathetic portrayal of Japanese soldiers directed by an old, white American is not enough to make it a brilliant film. So having now watched the bulk of nominated movies I'm gonna throw out my amateur predictions for tomorrow night. I'm too lazy to post all of the nominees, but if you're interested, you can see them here.

Best Picture
Idealistic Prediction: The Departed
Cynical Prediction: Babel
Luckily, The Departed is the frontrunner in this category, but since Babel is pretty much the same film as Crash but ten times better (which should not be construed as an endorsement of either film), I wouldn't be surprised if Alejandro González Iñárritu's international pity-fest walks away with this one.

Best Director
Idealistic Prediction: Martin Scorsese for The Departed
Cynical Prediction: Clint Eastwood for Letters from Iwo Jima
Though I fear it would be somewhat anticlimactic for Martin Scorsese to actually win this award (I mean, does he really want to accept an award from an organization that previously decided that Kevin Costner was a better filmmaker than he was?), he did direct the best movie of the last year and I would hope that the Academy is tired of kissing Clint Eastwood's bony, wrinkled ass. . . but maybe not.

Best Actor
Idealistic Prediction: Peter O'Toole for Venus
Cynical Prediction: Forrest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland
(Disclamer: I somehow managed to not see any of the nominated movies in this category, but I'm not gonna let that stop me). Forrest is definitely favored in this category and probably deserves the award, but it would be refreshing to see someone who has been shut out numorous times only to be given a token lifetime achievement award actually win the real thing. Plus, I'm still bitter about that time I had to watch First Daughter on a plane.

Best Actress
Idealistic Prediction: Helen Mirren for The Queen
Cynical Prediction: Helen Mirren for The Queen
Helen Mirren will get this award, and she deserves it. Period.

Best Supporting Actor
Idealistic Prediction: Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine or Mark Wahlberg for The Departed
Cynical Prediction: Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls
Alright, I get it. Eddie Murphy is talented. He can sing and dance and act and channel James Brown all in the same movie. But since I was born in 1984, all I can think of when somebody mentions his name is fat suits and a bad dance song with Rick James in the video. And I get that Alan Arkin and Mark Wahlberg both played completely one-dimensional characters, but you can't deny that they both completely own every scene they're in in their respective films.

Best Supporting Actress
Idealistic Prediction: Jennifer Hudson
Cynical Prediction: Jennifer Hudson
With one performance she singlehandedly proves that Beyoncee can't sing and that American Idol is a failure. No complaints here.

Best Original Screenplay
Idealistic Prediction: Little Miss Sunshine
Cynical Prediction: Babel
Did I mention that Babel is crap. Because it is. Little Miss Sunshine is a comedy that doesn't pander to frat guys or lonely, single women, and it's actually funny. When was the last time you could say that about a movie?

Best Adapted Screenplay
Idealistic Prediction: The Departed
Cynical Prediction: The Departed
Not that I wouldn't mind seeing Children of Men or Borat win this one, but The Departed succeded in taking one of the most ridiculous premises I've ever heard, and not only made it seem plausible, but turned it into one of the most hardcore gangster movies of all time.

Best Cinematography
Idealistic Prediction: Children of Men
Cynical Prediction: Children of Men
After being robbed of nominations Best Picture and Director, it'll be good to see this movie get some love, even if it's in a category that nobody in America is gonna give a shit about.

Best Editing
Idealistic Prediction: The Departed
Cynical Prediction: Babel
Just because a movie has four storylines and extended montage sequences in every other scene doesn't mean it's well edited, especially when it's at least 20 minutes too long.

Best Art Direction
Idealistic Prediction: Pan's Labrynth
Cynical Prediction: Dreamgirls
For the record, I think Children of Men should have been nominated and won for this award, but since it didn't, it should go the next best film by a Mexican with an overactive imagination.

Best Costume Design
Idealistic Prediction: Marie Antoinette
Cynical Prediction: Dreamgirls
There's pretty much no way that Dreamgirls isn't gonna win this award, but I'd like to point out that Marie Antoinette is the only costume period piece I've ever seen that actually makes light of the absudity of 19th century clothing.

Best Original Score
Idealistic Prediction: Babel
Cynical Prediction: Babel
Alright, I admit it. The music in Babel was pretty good.

Best Song
Idealistic Prediction: ??
Cynical Prediction: ??
Whatever. Prince wasn't nominated. And since all the good songs in Dreamgirls were apparently lifted from the stage musical (and thereby not elligible) I'm not even gonna pretend like I care who wins this one.

Best Makeup
Idealistic Prediction: Pan's Labrynth
Cynical Prediction: Pan's Labrynth
In case you're interested, there are only two other nominees for this award, and they are Click and Apocalypto. Since one is an Adam Sandler movie and the other is directed by the most vocal American anti-semite since Henry Ford, Pan's Labrynth pretty much wins by default.

Best Sound
Idealistic Prediction: Dreamgirls
Cynical Prediction: Dreamgirls
It was a two-and-a-half hour musical that I sat though and didn't hate. I guess it deserves some credit.

Best Sound Editing
Idealistic Prediction: Letters from Iwo Jima
Cynical Prediction: Flags of Our Fathers
Don't know. Don't care.

Best Animated Film
Idealistic Prediction: Cars
Cynical Prediction: Cars
Let's not kid ourselves here. Pixar could make a movie about the zany adventures of an anthropomorphic turd and it would still be better than anything that any other studio is doing.

Best Foreign Language Film
Idealistic Prediction: Pan's Labrynth
Cynical Prediction: Pan's Labrynth
It's good. Everybody loves it. It's gonna win.

Best Documentary
Idealistic Prediction: An Inconvenient Truth
Cynical Prediction: An Inconvenient Truth
Okay, I admit it. I didn't see any of the nominees for this one (even though I apparently own a copy of An Inconvenient Truth), but c'mon, Al Gore has had such bad luck with elections. Let's throw him a bone here.